98th Academy Awards: Final Predictions

Written by Andreas Babiolakis

The 98th Academy Awards are officially this Sunday, and that means that my final predictions have to be set. I’ve been making predictions all season long, but much can change in the blink of an eye. Other awards shows can either tell the narrative that we knew all along, or they can help films garner or lose steam. I’ll keep things short and sweet and will only focus on what films I feel like will take the top prize. I cannot pick two or more candidates. Even if I feel like a prize can go either way of two favourites (like, say, Best Picture) I will force myself to settle for one lone prediction.

BEST PICTURE

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

This is honestly the toughest prediction to make. This is honestly between Sinners and One Battle After Another. Even though One Battle After Another has won enough important top prizes before this one, including at the BAFTAs, Producers Guild of America Awards, and the Critics’ Choice Awards, there is something about Sinners’ momentum that feels impossible to deny; especially since the resurgence of the film’s popularity significantly rose during the final days of voting (from the support that came after the BAFTAs and the BBC greatly fumbled what happened during Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo presenting an award, to the surprising turn at the Actors Awards). The AMPAS voters clearly love Sinners; it has sixteen nominations, after all. I have even gone back and forth with my prediction while writing this article. I might be kicking myself in the ass here, but I am finally deciding One Battle After Another. I feel like the Academy wants it to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s time (although he can be awarded in other categories — see below). This year just feels a little too similar to what Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was pulling off the year that it won. Either way, this will be a close one, folks.

Best Director

• Hamnet-Chloé Zhao
• Marty Supreme-Josh Safdie
• One Battle After Another-Paul Thomas Anderson
• Sentimental Value-Joachin Trier
• Sinners-Ryan Coogler

While I think Best Picture is a tight race between two films, this one feels like it is in the bag for Paul Thomas Anderson. He has won many awards in this category already, including the biggest telltale sign of them all: the Directors Guild of America Award. There is a chance that this might be one of those years where the Best Picture and Director awards get split, but I cannot see anyone else beating Anderson at this point in time.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Bugonia-Emma Stone
• Hamnet-Jessie Buckley
• If I Had Legs I’d Kick You-Rose Byrne
• Sentimental Value-Renate Reinsve
• Song Sung Blue-Kate Hudson

We’re starting off the acting predictions with an easy one. Usually, the Best Actress race is a fierce and competitive one, but the 98th Academy Awards sees one Jessie Buckley sweeping every major awards ceremony with one win after another for Hamnet. I don’t think things will be any different at the Oscars. For those of you who are concerned that her opinions on cats will affect her trophy, that pariah happened after voting was closed (or, at least, around the time voting was concluding). I don’t think the stirred-up controversy will affect her chances whatsoever. I do want to confirm that I do not share her sentiments. #TeamFeline.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Blue Moon-Ethan Hawke
• Marty Supreme-Timothée Chalamet
• One Battle After Another-Leonardo DiCaprio
• The Secret Agent-Wagner Moura
• Sinners-Michael B. Jordan

This is another one that can kind of go either way; in this instance, it’s between Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet. However, that response Jordan got during the Actors Awards — and the win — tells me quite a story. The Chalamet hype train burned out too early this season; sure, he won the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe awards necessary to paint a convincing picture, but that was before Marty Supreme began to plummet in reputation. From the damning allegations surrounding Josh Safdie’s direction choices and allowance of assault on the set of Good Time, to people getting tired of the Marty Supreme promotional excess (also the general disdain for Kevin O’Leary doesn’t help), it appears as though Marty Supreme may go home empty handed, including Chalamet who was once deemed the one to beat. Considering that the SAG voters are all actors just like the Academy members voting on the acting hopefuls at the Oscars, and the undeniable momentum Jordan has had, I feel like he may defy the odds. In all honesty, history would dictate that Chalamet would still win given the precursors he has won (and a few other factors, including Best Picture nominees usually picking up at least one Oscar, and the Academy usually not caring for genre films like those of the horror variety, which Sinners is), but — if Bam Adebayo’s eighty-three point game for the Miami Heat has taught me this week — history can be broken in the most unexpected ways. I’m settling with Jordan.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• One Battle After Another-Teyana Taylor
• Sentimental Value-Elle Fanning
• Sentimental Value-Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
• Sinners-Wunmi Mosaku
• Weapons-Amy Madigan

This one could honestly be anyone’s. Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku have both already won major awards. The Oscars may want someone here to win for Sentimental Value (although there aren’t really any signs that point towards that, currently). The Oscars hate horror films. However, I feel like this could be Amy Madigan’s award. She has won the SAG award, which is a committee that is usually far kinder to horror and genre films, so that doesn’t tell me too much here. However, it is this award and the Critics’ Choice Award that lead me to believe that voters are opting for a legacy win for a veteran, underrated star. Furthermore, Weapons was a highly popular film that only got nominated here, leading me to believe that voters are pinpointing her brief performance as a major highlight of that film — as well as 2025 cinema as a whole. The Oscars like rewarding those who have earned their dues, and all four of the other nominees are young and possibly capable of being nominated again in the future; this could be Madigan’s one time to shine.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Frankenstein-Jacob Elordi
• One Battle After Another-Benicio del Toro
• One Battle After Another-Sean Penn
• Sentimental Value-Stellan Skarsgård
• Sinners-Delroy Lindo

This one is also tricky. On one hand, all signs point towards Sean Penn getting a rare third Oscar win (he previously won for Mystic River and Milk), even though the Academy does not like giving those away unless it is to one of the acting greats; despite how I feel about him as a person, I think it’s safe to say that Penn is a brilliant actor. On the other hand, even though he hasn’t really won enough awards thus far, Stellan Skarsgård has that story behind his campaign. This is his first nomination and he is considered an integral part of Sentimental Value (that may not win anywhere else). I don’t know if a solitary Golden Globe win is enough to prove that Skarsgård will win here, though, but I’m not saying that he doesn’t stand a chance. Additionally, this award could go to anyone because of how up-in-the-air it feels. I’m not certain here, but I will pick Penn. Both the BAFTA and the SAG award wins lead me to believe this.

Best Casting

• Hamnet-Nina Gold
• Marty Supreme-Jennifer Venditti
• One Battle After Another-Cassandra Kulukundis
• The Secret Agent-Gabriel Domingues
• Sinners-Francine Maisler

This one, I feel fairly confident with. If the SAG award for Best Cast doesn’t signify that Sinners will win Best Picture (it might not), it certainly proves that it will win this brand new category at the Academy Awards: one that is for the very category that Sinners jut won. I initially thought Marty Supreme had a major chance here, but there is next to zero positive buzz surrounding this film now.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia-Screenplay by Will Tracy
• Frankenstein-Written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
• Hamnet-Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
• One Battle After Another-Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
• Train Dreams-Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

I’ve seen some prognosticators state that Hamnet stands a chance here, and there might be a slight one. However, I think this is going to Paul Thomas Anderson and One Battle After Another.

Best International Feature Film

• It Was Just an Accident-France
• The Secret Agent-Brazil
• Sentimental Value-Norway
• Sirāt-Spain
• The Voice of Hind Rajab-Tunisia

This one is a doozy. I feel like it will go to either of the Best Picture nominated films — Sentimental Value, or The Secret Agent (there hasn’t been a year since the Academy has started to nominate international films for Best Picture on a frequent basis that this hasn’t happened). However, as much as the Oscars love Joachim Trier (and the Best Picture nomination was the result of many factors — from four nominated actors, to a slew of nominations elsewhere), I have learned that my instincts were correct last year: never underestimate the Academy’s love of Brazilian cinema. Consider how The Secret Agent made it to the Best Picture group with very little representation elsewhere, and how it even wound up as a surprise nomination for Best Casting. There is clearly a backing for this film. It’s a tough toss up, but I’m going with The Secret Agent; it’s giving I’m Still Here from last year.

Best Documentary Feature Film

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

We have yet another toss-up, folks. We have The Perfect Neighbor, and Mr Nobody Against Putin. Both have won significant awards; the former with the Critics’ Choice Documentary Award, and the latter with the BAFTA. My heart is telling me this will go to The Perfect Neighbor, but my gut is reminding me of the many times that the documentary branch at AMPAS has gone with a safer documentary on pressing issues; that is exactly what Mr Nobody Against Putin feels like (it is far from the best documentary about the Russian infiltration of Ukraine from last year, but it is the sole nomination here). I do hope The Perfect Neighbor wins instead, but I cannot ignore my instincts, here.

Best Animated Feature Film

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

It’s cleaning up everything. Next.

Best Live Action Short Film

• Butcher’s Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Short films are usually a crapshoot to guess. I’m picking The Singers because of the demand the film received to the point that it had a bit of a blow-up on Netflix. It’s also a feel good and creative look at the concerning topic of under-represented mental health crises in men. I do think Jane Austen’s Period Drama and A Friend of Dorothy have fighting chances, though.

Best Documentary Short Film

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and Are Gone
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

This is another bit of an arbitrary guess. Any of these films can win (yes, even the donkey-led Perfectly a Strangeness). I’m going with Children No More: Were and Are Gone because it is impossible to ignore its horrifying subject matter and the movement it captures. I also firmly believe that many AMPAS members do not watch every nominee (yes, even with that new rule that is clearly not being implemented well), and the name is striking enough that I feel like it would draw some attention to it and its subject.

Best Animated Short Film

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

We have — you guessed it — another guess at random. This one is insanely difficult to predict. I have nothing to really base my guess on. So, I will grasp at straws here. I am picking Forevergreen because I feel like it is similar in its message to the egregiously omitted Snow Bear (that I felt like should win this category, and it’s not even nominated). That leads me to believe that the Academy did have the environment on their mind when selecting a short film here, and they opted for the short that they felt was better with this subject matter. This can honestly go to anything nominated here, but I am picking Forevergreen. Just, anything but The Three Sisters, please.

Best Original Score

• Bugonia-Jerskin Fendrix
• Frankenstein-Alexandre Desplat
• Hamnet-Max Richter
• One Battle After Another-Jonny Greenwood
• Sinners-Ludwig Goransson

To no surprise, Sinners has been doing very well here. We are likely looking at another win for Ludwig Goransson.

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein-Dan Laustein
• Marty Supreme-Darius Khondji
• One Battle After Another-Michael Bauman
• Sinners-Autumn Duraid Akrapaw
• Train Dreams-Adolpho Veloso

I know people are expecting Sinners to pick up a win here, but I’m going with One Battle After Another, considering that it has won some major prizes, including — and especially — the top prize of the American Society of Cinematographers; this isn’t set in stone, but I just have a hunch. This award could go to a few of these nominees (justice for Train Dreams which sadly won’t likely win).

Best Film Editing

• F1-Stephen Mirrone
• Marty Supreme-Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• One Battle After Another-Andy Jurgensen
• Sentimental Value-Olivier Bugge Coutté
• Sinners-Michael P. Shawver

This could easily go to films like Marty Supreme and F1, but you will often find that this award goes to a major Best Picture contender in years that are split down the middle. This year, we can see One Battle After Another and Sinners going head-to-head. I am giving it to One Battle After Another since it has won more awards for film editing thus far, and it is far more showy with how it is assembled (let’s not forget about that break-neck pace of the film for all of its nearly three-hour runtime). This potential win is why I am also giving One Battle After Another the extra edge for Best Picture. Mark my words: whichever of the two films wins Best Film Editing is going to win Best Picture (any other winner won’t tell us anything).

-STEIN will clean up these three categories.

Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Toronto Metropolitan University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.

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