98th Academy Awards Best Picture Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
Tomorrow, the 98th Academy Award nominations will be announced. While it would be cumbersome to try and predict every single nominee across the board, I try to at least go with some obvious expectations by selecting what ten films will be selected for Best Picture. I go about this annually, and some years are far harder to assess than others, especially when it feels like many films are trying to knock down the Academy's door (and, typically, the Academy cannot refuse them). However, enough expected films have under-performed critically, and we have seen their chances of being nominated for Best Picture, including the so-so critical reception to James Cameron's Avatar: Fire and Ash (which would mark the end of the Avatar streak where each film has been nominated for Best Picture), the lukewarm reaction to Jon M. Chu's Wicked: For Good (which likely will not follow in its predecessor's steps and the slew of nominations it garnered), and the hostile grimace garnered by Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (so there won't be a music biopic being adorned this year).
Even so, I never feel like it is certainly simple to predict all ten nominees, so I will provide a couple of dark horse guesses as well. With all of this in mind, I am chuffed to say that this could be the first year where at least three international films will wind up being nominated (and rightfully so), showing how much the Academy has changed over the years for good (granted, there are many ways that they have changed for the worse and/or are stuck in their ways, but that's for another day). I will detail the ten films I believe will be nominated for Best Picture and my reasons why. Here are your nominees.
While Yorgos Lanthimos' films are now a safe bet for such an honour (which is really strange when you really think about it), Bugonia is only likely going to be nominated because of how uncompetitive the Best Picture race has been this year; don't get me wrong, I love this film, but it just was not picking up much steam at first. After the film's various Golden Globes appearances, we have now further confirmation that the film will do well at the Oscars, from SAG nominations (for Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons) to enough praise for the screenplay and production. I feel like that is at least three guaranteed nominations (including Stone for actress, although Plemons deserves his flowers as well), and that can be enough for Bugonia to sneak into the eighth or ninth spot in the ten picture lineup.
The response to Frankenstein has been a bit cooler than one would expect, given that I am essentially calling it a shoe-in to be nominated here, but you will find a couple of factors at play here. First, the Academy adores Guillermo del Toro; enough so that The Shape of Water is the first fantasy film (that isn't attached to the gigantic The Lord of the Rings franchise and had major headway) to win Best Picture. He usually makes an appearance here. Secondly, when a film piles up a number of nominations elsewhere, including production, makeup/hair, costume, score, et cetera (like Frankenstein likely will), all of these miniature wins go a long way when it comes to an entire Academy considering a film Best Picture worthy. Toss in Jacob Elordi being highly considered for Best Supporting Actor (rightfully so) and even winning the Critics' Choice Movie Award, and you've got a film that is being seriously discussed by the kinds of people necessary for the Best Picture consideration; the fact that del Toro is even a possible lock for a Best Director nod should tell you this as well.
I will remove my bias here, since Chloe Zhao's Hamnet is my favourite film of last year. It feels like a no brainer: the actual award for Best Picture is between three or four films, and, while Hamnet has fewer odds than at least two of its peers, the fact that it is in consideration to win means that it would have to be nominated. Winning the Peoples' Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival is almost a guarantee that that film will be nominated for Best Picture (unless you are fumbled as poorly as The Life of Chuck was, but, to be fair, that film is not Hamnet); Hamnet was released precisely when it needed to be and has played the Oscars game efficiently thus far. Toss in the surprising Golden Globe win for Best Picture — Drama (as well as the unsurprising win for Jessie Buckley, who is likely the frontrunner to win Best Actress at the Oscars), and the many other possible Oscar noms along the way, and you have a near-certain Best Picture nominee here.
Any other year, Jafar Panahi's magnificent film, It Was Just an Accident, may not have gotten its flowers by the Academy; consider how many other great films he has that were not recognized. However, 2026 is a different beast. The Palme d'Or winners at the Cannes Film Festival have made huge splashes at the Academy Awards since Parasite won Best Picture (all but Titane have made appearances at the Academy Awards), and you can thank Neon's skillful hand at figuring out both that film festival and the Oscars (case in point: Anora won both the Palme and Best Picture). The fact that It Was Just an Accident had a few appearances at the Golden Globes as well is quite something (I adore Iranian cinema). I don't know if it will have many nominations at the Oscars (outside of Best International Feature Film, a nod for its screenplay, and a potential director selection for Panahi — although the latter is not guaranteed), but it will have enough of a presence to take the sixth or seventh spot in the Best Picture lineup, I feel.
Just like a procrastinating smart ass, Marty Supreme has darted into the awards season extremely late but with enough oomph to stick its landing. While being the late submission in a calendar year is no longer the guaranteed method for studios to make in order for the Oscars to take notice, A24 is seemingly pulling it off here (this is kind of astonishing when you consider how many great films by the Safdies have not been acknowledged by the Academy in any capacity, and how likely they will honour Josh Safdie's film here). With Timothée Chalamet's increasing presence as the Best Actor frontrunner, that may not be enough to secure a Best Picture nomination. Once Safdie's direction, the film's editing, screenplay, score, and production have been noticed (and rising star Odessa A'zion's performance is now a potential late comer for Best Supporting Actress), Marty Supreme feels like one of the top five films to wind up in the Best Picture race (yes, that's me saying that it would have still made the cut if the Oscars went back to just having five nominees).
Do I even need to explain myself here? If Paul Thomas Anderson made a film about a cow with an upset stomach delivering the worst methane catastrophe of all time (and it lasted ten hours), the Academy would still honour it in some sort of a way (almost all of his films have received at least one Oscar nomination). When many are decreeing One Battle After Another amongst his best and the best of the year, that's a whole different story; for months, people have stated that Anderson would finally win his first Oscar for this film (and, in actuality, he may wind up winning multiple). This film is a guaranteed lock for Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (for Leonardo DiCaprio), two supporting actor hopefuls (Benecio del Toro and Sean Penn) and much more (including a likely-but-not-certain lock for rising star Chase Infinity, for Best Actress no less — a major gamble). When people are already throwing in the towel and insisting that One Battle After Another will take Best Picture (which it did already at the Golden Globes), there's no way that it won't make the final cut here.
Never underestimate the power of Brazilian cinephiles. After last year's pleasantly-shocking nomination for I'm Still Here in the Best Picture lineup (as well as its numerous nominations elsewhere), we saw how much the Academy loves strong films from Brazil (and, rightfully so: the nation is tremendous with its motion pictures). The Secret Agent seems to be having a similar trajectory. The film was already going to be one of the five Best International Feature Film cuts, but I now believe that it is the film to beat in that category (especially after its Golden Globes success). Toss in the galloping horse that is Wagner Moura's awards season (winning Best Actor in many places that matter, including Cannes, various critics circles, and the Golden Globes), and you have another success story for Brazilian cinema; if anybody but Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor, I'd actually expect it to be Moura.
While its awards season push has slowed down a little bit, Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value has still made enough noise to matter where it counts (completely disregard the SAG awards for dropping the ball and not nominating a single person in one of the year's best casts; what a misfire, there). At least two actors — if not more — will be considered (Stellan Skarskgard and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for their supporting work), but I'd still expect to see Renate Reinsve for Best Actress here. Then, you have the possibility that the film will be acknowledged for its direction and screenplay (Trier's The Worst Person in the World did get nominated for its screenplay, so this is not an impossibility); toss in the obvious Best International Feature Film acknowledgement, and you've got a Best Picture hopeful.
Why wouldn't the film event of the year get nominated here? If Ryan Coogler can get a Marvel film nominated for Best Picture (Black Panther), surely his superior film, Sinners, would wind up in the same position, no? Toss in the many other nominations it will accumulate (for its screenplay, its various production specialties, its cinematography, score, and more), and you already have the ball rolling here. Consider that Michael B. Jordan — who has been snubbed many times by the Academy — may be a first-time nominee here, and you will understand the likeliness that Sinners will be a Best Picture nominee; depending on who you ask, this film may even wind up winning it all (I think it has a small chance of doing so myself).
Finally, we have Train Dreams. I have listed everything in alphabetical order, but I also consider Train Dreams the potential tenth spot. It brings me joy to even consider this, when I feel like the Academy would have completely overlooked this magnificent film in other years; it's because the Best Picture race has opened up its availability by so much that I feel like it has a chance. It won't be nominated for much, likely only for its cinematography (what a stunning film this is), but there is the potential that the Nick Cave song featured will be up for Best Original song and that the film's screenplay may be recognized as well (although the Best Adapted Screenplay category is far too competitive this year for this to be likely); I'll dream that Joel Edgerton gets a Best Actor nomination as well, but that is as rare as I like my steaks (too rare). Nonetheless, Train Dreams may be the Nickel Boys and Women Talking of 2026: a film with barely any presence elsewhere in the nominations list, but just enough to make it to Best Picture.
Potential Dark Horse Nominations
• F1
I wasn't a huge fan of this film myself, but F1 has pleased enough crowds — and has enough of a presence in various tech categories — that I feel like it may squeak in to the Best Picture conversation; it would easily be the weakest film there in my opinion, but I believe it is possible.
• Sorry, Baby
I adore Eva Victor's Sorry, Baby, but I feel like there is very little chance that it can pull this surprise nomination. Still, there is a slight chance that Victor's screenplay can wind up in the Best Original Screenplay category (and Victor's Golden Globes nomination for Best Actress, not to mention Julia Roberts shouting Victor out during the ceremony, certainly may have helped that ball get rolling for Sorry, Baby). I'm not expecting this nomination, but I would certainly welcome it (the film is extraordinary).
• No Other Choice
Many people are predicting No Other Choice, but I do want to point out how many times the Academy has slighted Park Chan-wook. If a film like Decision to Leave can get zero nominations in a weaker year (and it may be his magnum opus), let alone zero love for Oldboy or The Handmaiden, I just don't know if No Other Choice will make the final cut, as great of a film as it is; even so, miracles can happen, and I would welcome No Other Choice making the final ten.
• Weapons
I mean, likely not, but you just do not know if the Academy will sneak in a highly-popular film like Weapons (then again, Sinners is already a shoe-in, and I doubt the Academy would honour two horror films in this way, let alone barely acknowledging one). Still, there are signs of a potential surprise here. Amy Madigan is all but guaranteed an appearance in the Best Supporting Actress category. The film may pop up in the Best Original Screenplay category as well (it’s a bit of a less competitive category this year). Weapons may pop up in Best Makeup and Hairstyling as well. Its presence is certainly starting to add up, is it not?
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Toronto Metropolitan University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.