95th Academy Award Best Picture Predictions
Written by Andreas Babiolakis
It’s that time of year, folks. In case you don’t know, we use the Academy Awards to celebrate the end of the previous year’s finest (and not-so-stellar) films that get nominated. I personally rank every single nominee in all of the categories each year, and it will kick off as soon as the nominees are announced tomorrow, January 24th. Additionally, I have reviewed every single Best Picture winner of the Academy Awards in history (you can find them all here). So the only place to start is to try and figure out which ten films will have a shot at being accessioned into the annals of the Oscars as the recipient of the Academy’s highest award. It doesn’t mean that the film will be even remotely the best of the previous year (or even good, at all), but that doesn’t matter when it comes to predictions. These aren’t the films that I want to be nominated. These are the films I just feel like will be.
If last year seemed a little lacklustre, this year is shaping out to be even worse. If the Academy had the guts to be even slightly daring again, there are many films that could actually warrant being respected here, ranging from selecting the first documentary to ever be acknowledged here (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed) and selecting more than one international film at a time (although at least they’ve honoured non-English-speaking films a couple of times lately, and one even won) to the Academy going back and respecting more indie films like they used to. Nonetheless, this year is shaping up to be one that is indicative of the typical Academy Awards year: one full of popularity and whichever studios and producers screamed the loudest to be recognized. However, you never know: there will always be dark horses (some I will cover at the end).
The list is presented in alphabetical order.
I don’t think the odds of the German adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front is a guarantee, but after its success at the BAFTAs, this could be the international film to make a splash here. Even though it’s not as certain as the nominees in recent years (Parasite, Drive My Car, Roma), All Quiet on the Western Front is shaping up to be the film to win for Best International Feature Film and get nominated elsewhere (likely for its technical and production-based achievements). A nomination for Best Picture isn’t too unlikely.
While Avatar: The Way of Water may not be picking as many major award nominations as we initially may have thought (James Cameron may not even be a shoe-in for Best Director at this rate), I think it will pick up enough technical nominations to wrangle its way into this category. It happens every year, and this will likely be no different. Besides, it is still killing at the box office and it is in the minds of voters at this very moment, so don’t expect Avatar: The Way of Water to be shut out (I will be surprised if it is).
This is not a guarantee, but Babylon does have a couple of factors that may help it (if its mediocre reception doesn’t). Firstly, it is guaranteed to be nominated for production, music, and maybe even acting categories. Secondly, the Academy loves Damien Chazelle (I do too. I just don’t like this film). Lastly, the Academy is enforcing exactly ten nominees for Best Picture, and that ensures that some films find their way into the final slots of the category. We’ve seen polarizing films make it in recent memory (Don’t Look Up), and the Academy has a history of having eras with iffy selections. We’re in such an era now, folks.
Finally. Here’s a film that is a guarantee to make it. The Banshees of Inisherin may even be a frontrunner to win, and here’s why. Its win for Best Feature: Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes was only the start of this film’s reign. While it does have stiff competition (more on those picks soon), we now lead into the BAFTAs and, well, their BAFTA ways: honouring UK works whenever possible. This could wind up being next to impossible to beat depending on its BAFTA success in the same way that The King’s Speech overtook the awards season from The Social Network over ten years ago (the difference is The Banshees of Inisherin is much more deserving).
I didn’t expect Elvis to be nominated outside of Best Actor (for Austin Butler) and for its tech and production categories, but here we are. It’s getting nominated for everything and at all ceremonies. It’s getting in for Best Picture at this rate, and its crowd pleasing ways certainly help it curry favour with voters. This is Bohemian Rhapsody all over again (although I’d argue Elvis is stronger in a couple of ways): the musical biopic is clearly here to stay (so strap in, folks, because they won’t be improving them anytime soon).
As much as I like this film (and I do a hell of a lot), I never really expected Everything Everywhere All at Once to be the awards season juggernaut that it is. In fact, it could even wind up winning Best Picture (and would certainly be one of the strangest films to do so, so I’m all for this). Because of the streak of acting awards and nominations this film has received, it has continued to gain momentum for its writing, direction, and technical capabilities. Ultimately, it has been nominated for Best Picture often enough that there may actually be a chance it wins (should it gain enough major category wins).
The safest of the films with the highest odds to win Best Picture, at least The Fabelmans is one of the better films by Steven Spielberg in years. It is tender, moving, and a triumph from a beloved filmmaker so late into his career; something this candid to the auteur has been well received as well. It seems to be losing a teensy bit of steam (the BAFTAs didn’t do the film many favours), but The Fabelmans still has a shot to win.
I’d love if Tár had any form of likeliness to win, but it doesn’t. At least it will definitely be recognized for Best Picture (it’s almost for certain at this point); what isn’t guaranteed is how many other nominations it should pick up (it deserves every nomination, mind you). I’d love if Todd Field got some love for Best Director, for instance. I’m not sure the scope of success Tár will have, but it’s left enough of a major impact amongst voters that it shouldn’t be snubbed here (I will be livid and shocked if it was).
Never would I have expected to say that Top Gun: Maverick would be nominated for Best Picture, but the truth is… it’s actually pretty good (I much prefer it to Top Gun, actually, although nothing will top Giorgio Moroder and Berlin’s top-tier song “Take My Breath Away”). It will pick up many tech awards, which will already give it high odds to be nominated here. Quite frankly, the staying power of the film has been impossible to ignore (it may fare even better than Avatar: The Way of Water does this Oscars). I’d make a safe bet that it’ll be here tomorrow.
Now, this is a complete guess. There are ten films to be nominated, and I honestly don’t think the last spot is one with any certainty. Given the amount of love for Brendan Fraser (and Hong Chau’s growing support for Best Supporting Actress), I wouldn’t be surprised if The Whale was a major surprise that wound up here. It may be one of those nominees (like, say, The Post) that get only one or two nominations outside of Best Picture and wind up there regardless because of the wide margins such a rule allows for. This is a complete, shot-in-the-dark guess from me, and I’d actually place next to zero validity in this prediction. If you know what will make the last spot, I’d like to know.
Other possible Best Picture nominees:
Aftersun (if the Academy actually knew what was good for them; maybe some BAFTA and indie spirit awards awareness may help)
Decision to Leave (if Park Chan-wook surprises us with a Best Director nomination)
Triangle of Sadness (if it accumulates a couple of nominations for its screenplay and for Dolly De Leon’s acting)
The Woman King (if it picks up nominations for its sets, costumes, and for Viola Davis)
Women Talking (if all awards shows could pull their heads out of their asses to recognize Sarah Polley’s stunning achievement)
Andreas Babiolakis has a Masters degree in Film and Photography Preservation and Collections Management from Toronto Metropolitan University, as well as a Bachelors degree in Cinema Studies from York University. His favourite times of year are the Criterion Collection flash sales and the annual Toronto International Film Festival.